Look To The Future

Twenty years ago we had mobile phones the size of house bricks, there were no such things as laptops, palm helds or i-phones. Korean cars were in their infancy and the Ford and Holden big sixes ruled the roost in Australia.

How things have changed.

So what do we think will happen to the auto market in the next twenty years?

We asked three of our team what sort of cars they would expect to see in the new car showrooms twenty years from now.Their thoughts make very interesting reading

Cathy Webb - Admin Support

I think we can see the trend already with the Toyota Prius and the new Australian made Camry hybrid. We are going to see all electric cars with zero emissions and hybrids that have small back up motors. This means that there will be a huge investment in infrastructure as there will be charging stations, battery exchanges and home plug-in systems. I think other countries who are solely dependent on imported oil will take the lead, but once they are underway we’ll be following suit.

It will be very interesting to see how the new Chevrolet (or Holden) Volt will be received. This car, which is due to be launched in the US in November takes the hybrid concept one stage further. Its batteries are charged up overnight before the car starts up, and, for the first 65 kms., it runs on battery power alone, and then the back up petrol motor kicks in. So clearly for many local commuting jobs the car will never consume any petrol, and will give zero emissions, plus of course the fuel bill will be zero, too.

I reckon that within ten years at least, a quarter of the market will be electric and by 2030 electric power will be the norm.

Chris Dagg - Used Car Trade-In Manager

Obviously the trend to be more fuel efficient will continue. New cars sold even today can cut off banks of cylinders when not needed, shut off the engine at traffic lights and use highly efficient small diesel engines.
But that’s just a start. The major key to increasing fuel efficiency is saving weight. Save weight and the car goes further. We already see some of the more expensive cars clad in weight saving aluminium, and that trend will continue.

But what about plastics? Carbon fibre is very light and immensely strong. I think that this, or similar materials, will be developed for motor vehicles.
In fact research is already well underway for the development of an all-plastic engine, yes, that's right, an engine made primarily from carbon fibre.
One has been produced in America that weighs in at 69kg. or one third the weight of its steel equivalent. And Volkswagen has made a prototype car called the Up!Lite which weighs under 700kgs, which is 40 percent less than normal.

So in 2030 you’ll be buying cars made out of plastic and aluminium, and your petrol consumption will be less than 2 litres per hundred kms, I promise!

Claude Khoury - Marketing Manager

The biggest change will be where cars are made, and that will make a major impact on the price of new cars.. You’ll be able to buy your new car at half the price you’re paying now! I don’t think we’ll be producing cars in Australia, though we may be making car parts for overseas manufacture.

The two biggest car manufacturing countries will be China and India.
India currently has a very fast growing car manufacturing industry, producing well over 2 million cars in 2009, but it also produces the World’s cheapest car, the Tata Nano which sells for less than $2500 in its home country.

China has already become the World’s largest car market.

It also makes over 10 million cars, mainly for home consumption, as less than half a million are exported. But that’s changing as they have already started to export cars to Australia, and they are extremely price competitive. As they mature they will vastly improve their manufacturing standards (as the Koreans did before them), and they will become a dominant player in World markets including Australia. Their very keen pricing will cause competitive mayhem and the consumer will be the winner.

Well that’s three very differing viewpoints of the market in 2030. But what if they are all correct?

We’ll have highly efficient electric cars, made of plastic and aluminium, imported form India or China and sold at rock bottom prices!

Is that an idealist wish? What do you think will happen? Let’s have your thoughts here